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Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked Casualties would quickly hit 10,000 on all sides in simulations of a war in 2026 By JAMES REINL, SOCIAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT, FOR DAILYMAIL.COM Published: 17:00, 23 November 2024 | Updated: 17:00, 23 November 2024 e-mail 17 shares 19 View comments House lawmakers this week weighed the prospects for a 2026 conflict between the US, Japan , and China over Taiwan in a war simulation that warned of devastating costs for all involved. Exercises gamed out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed how the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese assault - but not without taking heavy losses themselves. Fighting would claim some 10,000 casualties on all sides, CSIS projected. The US would lose 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes and some 3,000 troops in just the first three weeks of fighting. But China comes off worse, failing to regain Taiwan and losing most of its amphibious fleet, 52 major warships and 160 warplanes - a military humiliation that would imperil the country's communist leaders. The grim war simulations come at a time of political upheaval, with Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te taking a tougher line on China , which sees Taiwan as a renegade province to be unified with the mainland, by force if necessary. China has ramped up its military activities around Taiwan in the past five years, and President Xi Jinping has reportedly asked his generals to prepare to retake the island of 24 million people as soon as 2027. US President Joe Biden has vowed to defend the territory. But the US is not under any treaty obligations to do so, and president-elect Donald Trump has signaled he is less willing to bankroll a war in Asia in pursuit of his 'America First' policy. Against this tense backdrop, the CSIS this week showcased 25 possible simulations of the conflict to the members of the House China Select Committee, which is led by Michigan Republican John Moolenaar. Ready for action: A Taiwanese conscript launches rockets during an exercise at a military base in Tainan, Taiwan The big unknown: Would Chinese President Xi Jinping (right) launch an attack on Taiwan, and would president-elect Donald Trump defend the island? Pictured: a meeting of the two leaders in 2017 Read More EXCLUSIVE Retired arm general's chilling warning over China's chokehold on US military 'We walked through one simulation of what might happen in a worst-case scenario conflict with China and learned ways we can work together, in a bipartisan manner, to ensure that America is prepared,' Moolenaar told Fox News. 'No matter where or when, the US and our allies must have the military means to defeat our adversaries,' he said, adding that America may have to be the world's 'arsenal of democracy once more if called upon.' The Chinese defense industry is operating on a 'wartime footing,' and has ramped up its shipbuilding capacity 230 times greater than America's, reducing the military advantage the US has enjoyed for decades against the rising Asian power, the CSIS warns. Analysts urged lawmakers to be ready to act fast against a Chinese assault on Taiwan - saying the 'Ukraine' strategy of gradually upping support to that country to repel Russian invaders would not work in the South China Sea. Taiwan would have to hold the line against an assault, and the US would need to join the fight immediately, operating through its bases in Japan, says Matthew Cancian, a Naval War College professor and lead author of the project. 'If the US were not to join the fight for two weeks [after an invasion], it would be too late,' says Cancian, a Marine veteran. 'China would already have too strong a footing.' Washington also needs to send more anti-ship missiles to Taiwan to defend itself against an attack, the report says. CSIS said Japan's role in any such conflict was paramount and called for quickly bolstering US-Japan ties, as South Korea would likely not get involved in a war over Taiwan. Cancian said it would be 'very helpful if South Korea stood shoulder-to-shoulder with us.' Analysts also warned that North Korea may use a Taiwan crisis as an opportunity to invade the South, perhaps using the troops currently getting combat experience backing Russia's invasion of Ukraine . Taiwan President Lai Ching-te (center) is taking a tougher line on independence from China than his predecessors A M60A3 tank fires live rounds in Penghu, Taiwan, in a simulation of a response to an attack from China's Coast Guard vessels and militia boats War exercises gamed out by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) showed how the US and its allies could derail an amphibious Chinese assault Read More Biden refers to U.S. 'alliance' with China before quickly backtracking during final talks Cancian warned that US forces could not defend Taiwan from afar and would have to be deployed on the island to halt any Chinese attack. That's because China's anti-tank and anti-air missiles would threaten US shipments of weapons to the island. 'US forces would have to be directly involved,' said Cancian. 'There is no way to achieve denying a takeover of Taiwan while also keeping US forces safe.' Researchers warned that China is outproducing the US on airplanes, ships, and missiles. Beijing's land attack missiles and anti-ship missiles would be particularly devastating to US and allied forces there. The Pentagon must ramp up production of Harpoon anti-ship missiles, coastal defense cruise missiles and other munitions to defend Taiwan, it is claimed. Washington's current stockpile of some 440 anti-ship missiles would run out in less than seven days in a war with China, researchers warned. They urged Taiwan's admirals to stop ordering large ships that China can easily target and destroy, and focus on smaller vessels and stealthy submarines. The US has long maintained a policy of 'strategic ambiguity' over whether it would step in to defend Taiwan from a Chinese assault . The policy makes Taipei unwilling to provoke a war by formally declaring independence from China, while at the same time deterring Beijing from invading the island, for fear of ending up at war with a superpower. In the war game scenario, Trump, who is set to be president in 2026, comes to the defense of Taiwan. The US is Taiwan's most important international backer and arms supplier, despite the lack of formal diplomatic recognition. It is not clear what Trump would do under such a scenario - he has in the past suggested Taiwan should pay Washington for giving it defensive aid. The war-gaming took place against the backdrop of mounting tensions between Taiwan, China, and the US. Taiwanese soldiers stand guard during the 'Chen-Chiang' nighttime military exercises, in Penghu, Taiwan Taiwan President Lai Ching-te visits a military camp in Taoyuan, Taiwan, in May 2024, soon after taking office A member of the honour guards is seen during a ceremony commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Battle of Guningtou in Kinmen, Taiwan Read More Biden to meet Xi Jinping in Peru as White House dodges Trump subject Taiwan's President Lai will visit Taipei's three remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific on a trip starting at the end of the month, his office said on Friday. But the government declined to give details on any transit stops by the president on US soil. Taiwanese presidents usually use visits to allies to make what are officially stop-overs in the US, where they often meet with friendly politicians and give speeches, which anger Beijing. On two occasions in the past two years, China staged military drills around Taiwan after presidential or vice-presidential stopovers in the US. Taiwan's government rejects Beijing's sovereignty claims and says it has a right to engage with outer countries and for its leaders to make foreign trips . In August of last year, China held a day of military drills around Taiwan after then-vice president Lai returned from the US, where he officially made only stopovers but gave speeches on his way to and from Paraguay. In April of last year, China also held war games around Taiwan in anger at a US trip by then-president Tsai Ing-wen, who met then-US House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles. Japan Taiwan China Share or comment on this article: Can the US win a war with China? Shocking new simulation reveals what could happen if Taiwan is attacked e-mail 17 shares Add commentStock market today: Wall Street slips to a rare back-to-back loss
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina election officials won't order another recount in a close state Supreme Court race after a partial hand recount failed to suggest the trailing Republican candidate could overtake the Democratic incumbent. Following the completion of a machine recount of over 5.5 million ballots last week, Democratic Associate Justice Allison Riggs maintained a 734-vote lead over Republican Jefferson Griffin, who is currently a state Court of Appeals judge. Griffin then requested a partial hand recount in which randomly chosen ballots from 3% of the voting sites in all 100 counties were reexamined. The law says a statewide hand recount would have been required if the sample results differed enough so that the result would be reversed if the difference were extrapolated to all ballots. But the sample tabulations, which finished Tuesday, showed Riggs actually picking up more votes than Griffin. As a result, the State Board of Elections said a total recount won't be ordered. The election, however, has not been fully resolved. The five-member state board was scheduled to hear arguments Wednesday on protests previously filed by Griffin and three GOP legislative candidates who also are in very close elections. Riggs, one of two Democrats on the seven-member court, declared victory again on Tuesday, and her campaign renewed calls for Griffin to concede. Griffin didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking comment. The protests going before the state board, which question if well over 60,000 ballots should have been counted, cover three categories of voting. They include votes cast by people with voter registration records that lack driver’s licenses or partial Social Security numbers; overseas voters who have never lived in North Carolina but whose parents were deemed state residents; and military or overseas voters who did not provide copies of photo identification with their ballots. Separately Tuesday, a Court of Appeals panel unanimously declined Griffin's request to order the state board to rule on the protests before Wednesday's meeting to accelerate the process. The board could dismiss the protests or — if problems are found — order corrected ballot tallies, more recounts or new elections. Decisions by the board — with a 3-2 Democratic majority — can be appealed to state courts. Other protests filed by Griffin and the legislative candidates are being first considered by county boards. The state Democratic Party filed a federal lawsuit last week seeking to block the State Board of Elections from ruling in any way to throw out the disputed ballots. The Democrats' lawyers say federal law prohibits such systematic challenges to voter eligibility for an election that has already passed. Some of the protests focus on activities that Republicans already sued over before the November election. Democratic officials and their allies held a news conference early Tuesday outside the state Supreme Court building and strongly criticized Griffin and other Republicans for initiating claims they say would disenfranchise legal voters. North Carolina Democratic Party Chair Anderson Clayton said she fears the state Supreme Court could ultimately side with Republicans and remove the challenged ballots. “We are trying to make sure that people are raising their voices, that we are filing lawsuits where we can,” Clayton said. “And we are also trusting the process of our board of elections officials to do their job and to count every single vote.” Griffin led Riggs by about 10,000 votes on election night, but that lead dwindled and flipped to Riggs as qualifying provisional and absentee ballots were added to the totals. Other types of protests filed by Griffin and the legislators are being considered by county boards. The Associated Press has not called the Supreme Court race and two of the three legislative races highlighted in the protests. In one of the two, Republican state Rep. Frank Sossamon trails Democratic challenger Bryan Cohn. A Cohn victory would mean Republicans fall one seat short of retaining their current veto-proof majority starting next month.
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